Peculiarities of weather forecast for agriculture

No doubt weather is the most important factor determining whether an agricultural enterprise is successful or not. Changes in the weather greatly affect growth, state and amount of crops, its disease incidence, its need for water and fertilizers. Not only plants, but also a whole agricultural market highly depends on weather. Directly and due to some sideway reasons, weather is guilty of loss of the annual world crop in the amount of its three out of four! A mistake in weather forecast can result in crop loss.
Generally, as science and modern technologies evolve, the dependence of crop on weather seems to decrease but of course there is still some correlation of yield amount and weather conditions. Nevertheless, crop loss can be reduced significantly by adjusting taken measures that are based on well-timed and accurate weather forecast. Such weather forecast allows developing recommendations for long-term and seasonal planning and for selection of crops best suitable for expected climatic conditions.
Here one needs to take into consideration some specific features of weather forecast for agriculture which are quite different from those of weather forecast for daily living needs. Efficiency of weather forecasts is higher when attention of forecasters is emphasized on requests of farmers, and farmers know how to use these forecasts and what steps to take. The case is complicated by the fact that the reaction of various agricultural plants to type and intensity of peculiar weather phenomena is different; and this reaction also varies at different stages while plants grow. Furthermore, due to differences in climatic conditions, ways of cultivation of agricultural plants vary at certain world locations, even during the same season.

Thus forecasts for short and long periods of time are of the same great importance. For instance, making decisions based on forecast for late start of the season of growing plants requires significant alterations of ways of cultivation compared with ordinary start.
Organization and implementation of such strategies are considered as decisions of high cost, and usually they require quite a lot of time. That is why preliminary seasonal forecasts should be valid for at least 10 days and be received not less than a week beforehand.
Also measures of diminishing consequences of dangerous meteorological phenomena, of hazardous pests and diseases should be conducted properly in time and as they require some considerable time, so current seasonal forecasts should be received 5 days (at least not later than 3 days!) beforehand preferably.
One should mention here, as weather forecasts are processed for agricultural users, they should be distributed as soon as possible.
Since the season of growing plants starts, the only way to affect the situation is to minimize the impact of severe weather conditions by a timely adoption of preventive measures; the factor of time can be crucial here.
For example, crop loss due to night frosts can be prevented by irrigation, mulching or using smoke bombs.
The main weather phenomena timely information about which can significantly reduce commercial risks are:

• Precipitation, its amount and intensity. Warning of hail should be distributed in advance as there are agricultural plants that are to be protected (e.g., leafy and salad vegetables), and it takes additional expenses to have staff in the fields on constant basis.
• Temperature. In regions with temperate climate slight frosts represent a significant threat to crop, however lowering the temperature below zero has different impact on various kinds of agricultural plants: potato can perish while radish can withstand a drop in temperature up to -4C.
  In any cases current forecasts and chronological forecast data of previous seasons are both important.

So far as while making forecasts for agriculture, information on abnormal weather phenomena and its possibility for specific location should be emphasized; particular performance standards of weather regime and plant growth should be stated. Otherwise how abnormal weather phenomena can be recognized when a performance standard is not fixed. Thus chronological forecast data of previous seasons for this specific location represent particular interest; by scrutinizing which one can create a performance standard of ordinary weather conditions and can trace prevalence and frequency of abnormal weather phenomena.
In view of the above OpenWeatherMap company plans launching of new products designed for agriculture. Let’s see what we have in stores for our users: weather forecast for a specific region up to 10 days, temperature defining for any point worldwide (current and historical data), time, amount and location of precipitation (history and forecast), weather warnings of hail, frosts, storms and other abnormal weather phenomena.

Air pollution: ways to forecast and calculate it

Gazing through the window at the world outside
Wondering will mother earth survive
Hoping that mankind will stop abusing her sometime
- Ozzy Osbourne

In recent years, the fight against air pollution has become global. Humanity, at least when we are speaking about developed countries, starts to realize finally that the Earth is our common home which can get not suitable for living in the near future. Atmospheric pollution takes place when substances harmful for living creatures diffuse throughout the surrounding air, and then this destructive activity has its toxic impact later since it causes global changes of climate of the Earth.
 Processes of global warming, oxidation of world ocean, melting of the ice caps at the poles, thinning of the ozone layer, dense smog over metropolitan areas — these are only a part of the problems that have arisen as a result of air pollution. Generally speaking, air pollution is a penetration of physical, chemical and/or biological contents into air that are usually not common for air, or a change of natural concentration of these contents in the air.
 The most important indicators of air pollution are carbon monoxide (CO), ozone (O3), sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). With the increase in their permissible concentration in the air these gases affect both the environment and human well-being.

Carbon monoxide (CO)
Any process during which the partial burning of carbon-containing substance happens is a possible source of producing of carbon monoxide.
Carbon monoxide occurs in the atmosphere as a byproduct of industrial plants; petroleum industry and chemical plants contribute to a large amount of carbon monoxide production. The main sources of carbon monoxide are the burning of fossil fuels and the exhaust gases of internal combustion engines. This gas is extremely toxic.
In a human body carbon monoxide is inhaled with air and comes to blood where it combines with hemoglobin to produce carboxyhemoglobin, which assumes the space in hemoglobin that normally carries oxygen, but carboxyhemoglobin is ineffective for delivering oxygen to bodily tissues. Thus it causes seizure, coma and fatality. The most significant damage is caused to central nervous system. Breathing a small concentration of carbon monoxide results in a feeling of heaviness, a feeling of squeezing in head, a heavy headache, severe pain in forehead and temples, dizziness, tremors, thirst, increased heart rate, nausea, vomiting, a rise in body temperature to 38–40C. Weakness in legs indicates influence of carbon monoxide on the spinal cord. High toxicity of carbon monoxide and its lack of colour, odour and taste make this gas extremely dangerous.

Ozone (O3)
Actually ozone is present in a low concentration throughout the Earth’s atmosphere. Ozone is an allotrope of oxygen and is vital for living creatures. Ozone gas forms the crucial ozone layer between about 10 km and 30 km above the Earth’s surface preventing damaging ultraviolet light from reaching the Earth’s surface, to the benefit of both plants and animals. But in close proximity to a human being ozone is much less salutary.
Ozone is a substance of the highest, the first class of hazard since it is a very strong oxidizer, which is extremely toxic to humans, and is the third largest greenhouse gas originating in human activity of environmental pollution.
As a component of smog, ozone is not discharged to the atmosphere, and is formed by the action of daylight UV rays on ozone precursors. Ozone precursors are a group of pollutants, predominantly those emitted during the combustion of fossil fuels; these are nitrogen oxides, volatile hydrocarbons and some other compounds.
Ozone is harmful to living beings, its action slow but serious. Long-term exposure to air rich in ozone has been shown to increase risk of cardiovascular diseases, respiratory problems, developing atherosclerosis.
Exposure to high ozone concentration above the permissible limit values is linked to headache, mucosal irritation, coughing, dizziness, fatigue, weak cardiac activity. Breathing of ozone leads to emergence or exacerbation of respiratory diseases, populations at risk are children, the elderly, and asthmatics.
Ozone adversely affects not only human health, but it is also harmful for agriculture: tons of crop of rice, wheat, soybeans and corn are lost annually due to toxicity of this gas.

Sulfur dioxide (SO2)
Sulfur dioxide is the most common air contaminant as many sorts of fuel contain sulfur. This gas has a general toxic effect and causes respiratory problems. Symptoms of poisoning are the following: a cough, rheum, hoarseness, strong sore throat and a peculiar taste in the mouth. Breathing of high concentration of sulfur dioxide results in difficulty swallowing, choking, speech disorder, nausea and vomiting, acute pulmonary edema may develop.

Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) is a reddish-brown gas that has a characteristic sharp, biting odor. The main sources of nitrogen dioxide are internal combustion engines burning fossil fuels. Often this brown gas is called “Megapolis gas”. Its presence in the atmosphere contributes to acid rains and reduces the ozone layer. Nitrogen dioxide is highly toxic, and it adversely affects the sense of smell. Thus, a 10-minute inhalation of nitrogen dioxide is enough for a person to stop feeling smell; dryness in the throat appears, mucous membranes become irritated. Even small concentrations of nitrogen dioxide irritate the respiratory tract, and high concentrations cause pulmonary edema. Along with influence on the respiratory tract and lungs, nitrogen causes changes in blood composition, in particular, it reduces hemoglobin concentration in blood. Cancer and cardiovascular diseases are the results of the harmful effects of nitrogen dioxide.

One of the challenges of global and local assessment of the environmental situation consists in the fact that the values of the basic indicators vary widely not only from region to region but also even within a few kilometers. It depends on many factors such as anthropogenic (the proximity of fuel combustion sources, of industrial plants, actively ongoing agriculture and street traffic) and weather factors (wind direction, humidity and sunlight). Geographical location of sources of pollution and objects under consideration is not less important. All this must be taken into account in making forecasts, in development of measures to fix critical situations and in creating long-term plans for environmental improvement.
 One should understand that all these measures are unity of specific factors, which can be measured, calculated, forecast, and as a result, regulated. And modern technologies already allow doing that.
 Not wanting to stay away from the solution of world problems, OpenWeatherMap company has released a new product called “Air quality data” based on the technology of Big Data Platform in April 2016. There is a package of APIs for data on the main indicators of air pollution, on the basis of which it is possible to adequately and accurately evaluate the environmental situation anywhere in the world and create forecasts for the adoption of preventive measures.
 APIs for historical data (since November 2015) allow to create analytical services for the analysis of situation in the past, taking into account the impact of seasonal, weather and anthropogenic factors. It also helps making conclusions on necessary measures to improve the environmental situation across the countries and even continents.
 However no matter how advanced technology is, people and their determination to take the necessary steps have always been and will be the crucial power in preventing a potential disaster.